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Institute for population and human studies
 
  • Nasselenie Review
    СПИСАНИЕ НАСЕЛЕНИЕ
  • ISSN 0205-0617    (Print)
    ISSN 2367-9174 (Online)
 
CELEBRATION OF THE 40TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE PUBLICATION OF THE NASSELENIE REVIEW BY THE BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
Penka NAIDENOVA
*Article language: English
CHANGING FERTILITY PATTERNS IN EUROPE - A PERIOD ANALYSIS (1960-2020)
Stanislava MORALIYSKA-NIKOLOVA
Abstract:
The main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between TFR, delayed births and indicators of the average age of mother at childbirth in the conditions of postponement parenthood transition throughout the analysed period. An attempt was made to assess the immediate impact of changes, specifically at the end of the period considered, on cross-sectional fertility rates. Based on the relevant indicators, similarities and differences in the dynamics of the observed processes in the European countries were studied. According to the established similarities in the trends of the considered indicators, groups of countries were formed in which the transition started at the same time and in a relatively close socio-economic context. In this study, more detailed attention was paid to the very pronounced recent postponement of births observed in 2020, when the global Covid-19 pandemic unfolded in Europe at the beginning of the year.
Key words: TFR; “lowest-low fertility”; postponement of first births; average age of mother at childbirth; tempo effect; quantum effect.
*Article language: English
INFLUENCE OF THE STANDARD OF LIVING ON THE BIRTH RATE IN BULGARIA
Nikolay STOENCHEV
Abstract:
The article presents the results of a statistical analysis of the dependence of the birth rate in Bulgaria on the standard of living in an up-to-date aspect. Fertility was presented using the crude birth rate and the total fertility rate. In order to assess the standard of living, a complex set of criteria for administrative provinces was calculated, taking into account the state of 12 specially selected indicators at the same time. The information used was: the information officially published by the National Statistical Institute, Eurostat and data from the publication “Regional Profiles – Development Indicators” by the Institute for Market Economy. The algorithm of the used methodology was detailed, including the user options and arguments for choice. An international comparison was also made involving the EU Member States. The lack of a significant relationship between the birth rate and the standard of living according to complex criteria in Bulgaria and a moderate negative relationship between the total fertility rate and the standard of living in our country was revealed. When the analysis is based only on the GDP per capita as criteria for the achieved standard of living, the relationship between financial well-being and the birth rate turns out to be moderately positive, both for Bulgaria and for the entire set of EU Member States (EU 27). Recommendations were made for selective financial stimulation of the population in reproductive age and special attention to support married couples with reproductive problems and vulnerable social communities.
Key words: birth rate; fertility; standard of living; complex criteria.
*Article language: English
VOLUNTARY CHILDLESSNESS IS INCREASINGLY CULTURALLY ACCEPTABLE IN DEVELOPED EUROPE
Stoyanka CHERKEZOVA
Abstract:
The study analyses societal norms about voluntary childlessness in 29 European countries in the context of 1) achieved human development measured by its three main components: health, income and education and 2) some cultural norms towards inequalities and exclusion and the degree of individualism and collectivism in societies. The comparative analysis uses microdata from two waves of the European Social Survey, the third from 2006 and the ninth from 2018/2019, as well as aggregated data from Eurostat. The main statistical methods are descriptive and principal components analyses. Countries were classified according to their degree of modernisation. We registered unidirectionality across countries in the change of cultural norms relative to voluntary childlessness over time. We found convergences in the classification of countries according to attitudes towards voluntary childlessness and according to human development achieved and cultural differences, with human development leading the way. The study interprets the results in the context of traditional, modern and postmodern. The results of the study raise more fundamental theoretical questions related to the direction of change in cultural norms, such as what we can expect to happen in Central and Eastern European countries.
Key words: cultural norms about voluntary childlessness in Europe; human development; individualistic and collectivistic societies; inclusive/cohesive and exclusive societies.
*Article language: English
STUDY ON THE CHANGES IN THE AGE DEPENDENCY RATIO AND THEIR EFFECTS ON THE ECONOMY
Krasimira SLAVEVA
Abstract:
Assessing the impact of the ongoing demographic processes on Bulgaria’s economy and social system requires a complex approach, since the in-depth analysis of the situation and the causes that lead to such demographic processes are a reliable basis on which to develop a concept for an active demographic policy. The purpose of this article is to reveal and measure the changes in the age structure of the population, to model the trends in the change of the age dependency ratio, and to evaluate the economic and social effects of population aging, by using statistical methods of analysis. Statistical methods are used in the study to analyse dynamic series, to analyse structural changes and differences and to reveal relationships and dependencies. The results of evaluating the intensity of the changes in the age structure provide grounds for the conclusion that the changes in the age structure based on the three age groups – 0–14, 15–64 and 65+ compared to the base structure, are manifested more slowly in comparison with the changes in the structure of the population on the basis of consecutive cohorts formed by five-year age intervals. When compared with the structure of the previous year, the value of the ratios would turn out to be lower and would indicate weaker structural changes, since the age structure in the considered age intervals does not imply sharp changes within a year-long period. The developed trend models would make it possible to develop short-term forecasts of the expected values of the age dependency ratios by years with the corresponding confidence intervals of the forecast, evaluation of potential changes in the case of changes in the factors affecting the main demographic processes. The significant changes in the age structure of the population of Bulgaria and the deepening of the population ageing processes bring to the fore some important issues related to economic development, stability of the national economy, stability of the pension system and fiscal stability, due to the increased pension-related expenditures, expenditures on health care, social assistance, etc.
Key words: demographic processes; population ageing; population age structure; age dependency ratio.
*Article language: English
POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON LABOUR FORCE REPRODUCTION IN BULGARIA
Kremena BORISSOVA-MARINOVA
Abstract:
The present study represents an attempt to identify basic effects of COVID-19 pandemic on the long-term trends observed in the labour force reproduction in Bulgaria. The period of time of the study selected (2006-2021) starts with the year before the Bulgaria’s accession into the EU. To receive a more objective assessment of the changes studied, an international comparison of the trends was made with four European countries: Greece, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Sweden. Statistical information published by the National Statistical Institute and Eurostat (vital statistics and annual data of Labour Force Survey) over the period analysed was used in the study. The study includes two aspects of analysis. The first aspect covers the examination of long-term trends of evolution of basic demographic parameters in the selected countries (labour force dimension and speed of the demographic ageing). The second aspect is focussed on the trends of evolution of economic activity levels by three demographic and social attributes (age, sex and level of education). The results obtained provide a basis to consider the negative changes in the long-term trends observed during the period 2020–2021 as an indication for the presence of COVID-19 pandemic’s different sized effects on the labour supply.
Key words: labour force reproduction; determinants of labour offer changes; effects of COVID-19 pandemic on the labour supply.
*Article language: English
SUPPORTING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH INTRAPRENEURSHIP – CAPACITY AND MINDSET OF THE BUSINESS AND EMPLOYED PERSON
Todor TODOROV
Abstract:
This paper aims to discuss the role of intrapreneurship for supporting sustainable development in organisations and achieving environmental, social and business sustainability. The results of a survey conducted in Bulgaria among employees and employers are presented and an analysis of the effect their intrapreneurial skills and attitudes have on the existing practices, targeted towards achieving sustainable development in organisations, was made. The results of the study confirm the thesis defended in the paper, related to the understanding that building capacity within existing organisations to identify innovative ideas and further develop them in intrapreneurial endeavours for the modification of products, services and organisational processes has a significant potential for positive impact on sustainability.
Key words: sustainable development; intrapreneurship; environmental; social and business sustainability.
*Article language: English
SOCIAL CAPITAL AND EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENTS OF STUDENTS FROM MAJOR ETNIC GROUPS – BULGARIANS AND ROMA
Enitsa PCHELAROVA
Abstract:
A stable social group is being formed in the Bulgarian society, and this group has no chances to self-fulfillment on the labour market due to illiteracy or lack of education and/or qualifications. At the same time, changes in the labour market impose higher requirements on labour force’s educational and qualification levels. Thirdly, the social stratification of society results in linking access to education with the socio-economic status of families. The question arises whether it is possible for the scarcity of economic and cultural capital to be influenced by the social capital’s resources for the purposes of education? Under what circumstances social capital could increase or decrease the likelihood of educational achievements of students in the Bulgarian education system? This work examines the problem of the relationship between social capital and educational achievements through the lens of theories of James Coleman, Pierre Bourdieu, Alejandro Portes and Nan Lin and Raymond Boudon’s theory of primary and secondary effects of social origins, as further developed by Robert Erickson, Jan Jonsson, John Goldthorpe and Hartmut Esser.
Key words: social capital; educational achievements; educational inequalities.
*Article language: English