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Institute for population and human studies
 
  • Nasselenie Review
    СПИСАНИЕ НАСЕЛЕНИЕ
  • ISSN 0205-0617    (Print)
    ISSN 2367-9174 (Online)
FREQUENCY OF MULTIPLE BIRTHS IN BULGARIA
Marta Sugareva
Abstract:
The dynamics of multiple births is studied in the paper. The trends of these births are examined in several sub-periods – since 1881 (the earliest date when reliable statistics are available) until the present. Four sub-periods are revealed: 1) before 1910 – period of increase of the share of multiple births up to 1,5 per 1000 births; 2) 1920-1951 (the share is around 1 per 1000); 3) since 1951 to the beginning of the XXI century (below 1 per 1000); after 2005 – a strong trend of increase of the share of multiple births up to 1,7 per 1000).
Key words: multiple births; dynamics; frequency
*Article language: Bulgarian
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS AND SUICIDE RISK: A STUDY OF MALE HOSPITALIZED PSYCHIATRIC PATIENTS
Ivo Mitrev, Elitsa Dimitrova, Velina Mitreva
Abstract:
The aim of the study is to ascertain the suicide risk associated with some socio-demographic factors in male patients hospitalized in a psychiatric clinic –a population at a high risk of suicidal behavior. 164 hospitalized psychiatric patients are evaluated according to certain clinical characteristics, socio-demographic indicators and results from psychometric scales. Bivariate and multi-factor analyses are applied. According to the obtained results patients, who don’t cohabit with a partner show a higher level of suicide risk (total score from the A. Beck Scale for Suicide Ideation – SSI) and have attempted suicide more often. The lack of a partner is an independent predictor in both multi-factor models. Those living in a large town are more hopeless (total score from the A. Beck Hopelessness Scale– BHS) and with a higher suicide risk (SSI), than those living in a village. As the examined patients’ age increases so does the depression’s severity (total score from the Montgomery – Åsberg Depression Rating Scale–MADRS), but not the suicide risk. These results can be of use when assessing suicide risk.
Key words: suicide risk, suicide, socio-demographic factors, psychiatric patients, depression, hopelessness
*Article language: Bulgarian
HEALTH POTENTIAL FOR EMPLOYMENT OF PEOPLE TO LATER AGE
Rossitsa Rangelova
Abstract:
Increasing life expectancy and ageing population put fiscal challenges facing government programs for social security and create a need for policy to extend the retirement age. The large-scale and long-time worked out project “International Social Security“ (ISS) studies these problems including 12 developed countries in the world. The project is organized by the National Bureau of Economic Research, supported by the National Institute on Ageing of the Population in the United States. The article considers part of the project, in particular empirical work on the seventh stage, which is focused on health as a potential of older people to increase their employment to a later age. The subject of the study is the population aged mainly 55-69. Two alternative methods and an additional approach based on self-assessment of health are applied. The results obtained show that people in pre-retirement and retirement age have significant additional health potential to work to a later age.
Key words: social security; retirement; health potential; labour market for the elderly; economically advanced countries
*Article language: Bulgarian
PROJECTED CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION A CCORDING TO THE EDUCATION LEVEL IN BULGARIA TO 2021
Adriana Hristova
Abstract:
Under the conditions of long-term and significant reduction of the economically active population in Bulgaria, the dynamics of the educational structure has been becoming more and more significant. The major results of the forecast of development of the economically active population according to the educational level in Bulgaria to 2021 are presented in the article. Since there is no average-term demographic forecast to 2021 or an official long-term demographic forecast the demographic scenario of the National Statistical Institute for Bulgaria for the period to 2060 (the realistic variant) has been used to develop the forecast. Moreover, no forecast on the changes in population according to the education level is published for the period considered. The economic activity rates have been projected for four categories of education: high-educated, those who graduated from vocational or secondary schools, low-educated or functionally uneducated. The hypotheses were built on the basis of analytical results and conclusions for the period 1985-2012 and more special attention was paid to the last eight years of the reference period, namely the period 2005-2012. The reference information on the economically active population by sex, age and education category was calculated according to data of NSI publications on the censuses conducted in the country in 1985, 1992, 2001 and 2011, as well as annual data of the “Employment and unemployment“ Labour Force Survey for the period 2001-2012.
Key words: economic activity modelling; education forecast; economically active population
*Article language: Bulgarian
EX-POST ASSESSMENT OF THE ACTIVE LABOUR MARKET POLICY AMONGST THE EMPLOYERS THAT PARTICIPATED IN PROGRAMMES
Atanas Atanassov
Abstract:
This paper presents the main results from the study of the concerned of the active labour market policy employers. The analysis begins with a description of the main characteristics of the organisations that participated in employment programmes and measures. It continues with a presentation of participation in programmes and measures, an assessment of the respective programmes/measures by the employers, as well as of their influence on the organisation. The analysis finishes with a description of the regional characteristics of the employers that participated in employment programmes and measures. In times of economic recession, the most important thing is to place the emphasis on the efficient programmes and measures which can produce the highest possible effect with a limited budget. However, the most vulnerable groups on the labour market must not be forgotten because they are the main target group and rely most heavily on the programs and measures that are implemented. The final conclusion that can be drawn from the study is that the programmes and measures must be viewed comprehensively, and the more varied they are, the greater the number of target groups that will be able to benefit from them is. In the final account, a programme or a measure must not be scrapped for not being effective. The ineffective programmes should only be minimized, and more funds should be transferred to those with high economic efficiency.
Key words: labour market; ex-post assessment of the active labour market policy; study amongst the employers; programmes and measures for employment
*Article language: Bulgarian
POLICY RELATED TO THE COMBINATION OF FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS OF WORK WITH THE POPULATION REPRODUCTION IN THE BULGARIAN LEGISLATION IN THE PERIOD FROM 1879 TO 1912
Mario Alexandrov
Abstract:
The employment is a subject of the labour law which as a branch of the legal system regulates the legal relationships between employers and hired workers on the providing labour occasion. The aim of this study is to clarify the building of concept in the Bulgarian legislation in the period 1878-1912 in regard of one of the main directions of demographic policy, the one linked to the birth rate of the country, in particular on the combining of opportunities of work with the population reproduction. The main conclusion of the analysis is that it is mainly oriented to women and children. At the end of the period studied, an aspiration of the Bulgarian law-makers to extend this policy towards different types of work and different sectors of economy is ascertained.
Key words: employment; the legal system; population policy; birth rate; Bulgarian legislation
*Article language: Bulgarian