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Институт за изследване на населението и човека
 
  • Nasselenie Review
    СПИСАНИЕ НАСЕЛЕНИЕ
  • ISSN 0205-0617    (Print)
    ISSN 2367-9174 (Online)
MOMENTUM AND CHANGES IN SIZE AND AGE STRUCTURE OF THE POPULATION IN BULGARIA OVER THE PERIOD 1947-2009
Kamellia Lillova
Абстракт:
Population momentum in Bulgaria during 1947-2009 has been studied in relation to changes in the population size and age structure. The population momentum of Bulgaria has been decreasing continuously for more than 70 years – from high positive to high negative values. So in the middle of the last century the age structure ensured potential for 30% future population increase, and today it has potential for 20% population reduction. Momentum decomposition into stable and nonstable components showed that the age composition was highly destabilized in the 1990s, due to sharp changes of the birth rate. Calculation of age-specific momentum showed the presence of peculiar trends in the age groups. Trend analysis of the total and age-specific momentum statistics in the context of the demographic transition threw additional light on the mechanism of population ageing in Bulgaria.
Ключови думи: population age structure, population age composition, population momentum, population inertia, population growth potential, demographic ageing, reproduction
*Език на статията: Английски
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IN BULGARIA AND SELECTED EUROPEAN COUNTRIES OVER THE PERIOD 1965–2008
Kremena Borissova-Marinova, Stanislava Nikolova
Абстракт:
Searching solutions for the unfavourable trends in population reproduction over the last few decades is connected to the studies of international migration as more and more countries in Europe get the opportunity to use external migration as an instrument for achieving positive effects in short-term population development. The raising interest in international migration analysis in Bulgaria needs to be completed by a long-term comparative study of this topic. The basic notions concerning international migrations and used by Eurostat are presented and special attention is paid to work on harmonization of the legal acts aimed at creating of a common data base of accurate and comparable series of statistical data on migration processes. The analysis is based on two types of migration measures: direct and indirect. Dynamics of net migration, emigration and immigration flow size and structures are studied as well as the refugees’ flows and population structure by citizenship. As a group for comparison eight European countries are selected: Sweden, Germany, Denmark, Portugal, Greece, Hungary, Czech Republic and Romania. The countries are grouped according to the role of the net migration in the population reproduction over the studied period.
Ключови думи: migration database, external migration measures, dynamics and structure of net migration, international comparisons
*Език на статията: Английски
METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS IN THE STUDY OF PERIOD AND COHORT FERTILITY (IN A PERIOD OF CHANGE OF PATTERN OF AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY)
Stanislava Nikolova
Абстракт:
This study presents a review of traditional and latest fertility research methods, whereas more particular attention is focused on aspects, which are related to the process of childbirth postponement. As large part of the developed countries has shown low fertility levels over the last decades, we are witnessing the reoccurrence of the debate over the period fertility measures and the interpretation thereof. Studying the process of fertility just on the basis of period measures such as the total fertility rate would hurdle any in-depth studies of all its characteristics and determinants. This may lead to a distortion in the conclusions and inferences as to the present and even more so – the future women’s fertility behaviour. As the issue concerning the process of postponement of parenthood and its long-term consequences on the level of fertility is so relevant, a number of methods were developed over the last years analysing this process in a variety of aspects. The objective of this study is to make a brief overview of the methods developed over the last years, not claiming, however, to be exhaustive, aimed at correcting the period and the cohort fertility measures and at projections of completed fertility of the cohorts of women still in reproductive age. The adjusted measures obtained are more precise fertility indicators than those observed in a given year. At the same time, the cohort fertility analysis in the context of transition to childbirth postponement and possible subsequent resumption of postponed childbirth would make a good fundament to develop precise fertility development projections and correct political decision making to alleviate the consequences of the now observed low levels of fertility through the decades to come.
Ключови думи: period and cohort fertility, childbirth postponement, adjusted indicators, completed cohort fertility, projections
*Език на статията: Английски
PUBLIC OPINION FOCUS ON FAMILY BENEFITS IN THE CONTEXT OF DEMOGRAPHIC CRISIS
Tatyana Kotzeva, Elitsa Dimitrova
Абстракт:
This paper aims to reveal people’s attitudes and expectations toward family policy, in particular family benefits as instruments for policy implementation during the period of significant social changes over the last 20 years. We keep in mind that the subjective ingredient of policy analysis, i.e. people’s evaluation depends on socio-political and economic context that defines the frames for social policy functioning. The authors’ analysis is based on (has ) two tasks: 1) to outline some main findings from recent national and international surveys focused on the topic of people’s evaluation of social policy measures; 2) to present online forums analysis using media data collected during the period 2011-2013. Through analysis of internet forums and thematic analysis the main topics, principles and differences in people’s attitudes toward parental leave have been demonstrated in forums discussions. The mixed picture of opinions is in line with the contradictory (changes initiated in the social policy after 1990) acts social policy has initiated after 1990. The analysis indicates that people’s discourses on social and family policy are very important in a process of construction of evidence-based policy and its efficacy.
Ключови думи: family policy, family benefits, parental leave, assessment of the social policy measures, online forums analysis, thematic analysis
*Език на статията: Английски
NATIONAL SPECIFICITIES OF POPULATION AGEING IN BULGARIA
Genoveva Mihova
Абстракт:
Ageing is taken up as a process concerning the change of the entire demographic and economic reproduction. Its specific particularities in Bulgaria are defined taking into consideration the intensity of the age-specific restructuring of population (1990: 20,4% aged 60 and more, 2010: 25,1%, 2030: 26,6%) under transition-specific unfavourable living conditions typical of that centralised-to-market-economy transition period, a sharp birth rate decline and rising death rate. Taking as a basis the EU-launched concept of Active and Healthy Ageing and the statements published by a number of European researchers, the author defends their position on the usefulness of the elderly population under good social and State organisation. Moreover, the author assumes that this is the only alternative solution given the remarkably worsening indices of development in Bulgaria, i.e. low productivity rates, young workforce shortages, low pension and benefit levels and low employment levels among retired people at younger age having conserved their work capacity and professional skills. The author considers lengthening of human life in good health, unachieved in Bulgaria, as a future solution of an important workforce source and a good driver for the economic growth rates, and, alongside with this, of improvement of living standards of all generations and improvement of population sustainability
Ключови думи: ageing, life expectancy, life quality, population-oriented policies, social exclusion
*Език на статията: Английски
OTTOMAN SOURCES ON HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF BULGARIAN LANDS IN THE 18TH AND 19TH ENTURIES (UNTIL 1878) AND THE PLACE OF NÜFUS DEFTERS
S. Shterionov, D. Angelova, V. Muchinov
Абстракт:
--
Ключови думи: --
*Език на статията: Английски
DIVORCES AMONG THE CHRISTIAN POPULATION IN THE BULGARIAN LANDS IN THE 19TH CENTURY
Daniela Angelova
Абстракт:
The focus of this article is a topic that is insufficiently studied in Bulgaria: divorces among the Christians in the 19th century. Information on it is available in the Codes of the Tarnovo and Plovdiv Metropolia and the Protocol Book of the Haskovo Bulgarian Church Community. The canonical rules of the Orthodox Church concerning marriage and its dissolution are presented, as well as the prescriptions of the common law and their registering in the sources. The focus of interest for the researcher is the dynamics of divorces in Tarnovo Metropolis in the period 1847-1878 and the clarification of the reasons thereto is subject to more in-depth studies.
Ключови думи: historical demography, divorces, Christian population, Ottoman Empire
*Език на статията: Английски
POLICY OF THE OTTOMAN AUTHORITY CONCERNING THE IMMIGRATION IN THE BULGARIAN LANDS OF THE NON-MUSLIM POPULATION FROM THE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES IN THE 18TH–19TH CENTURIES (UNTIL 1878)
Ventsislav Muchinov
Абстракт:
This article studies the problems related to the policy of the Ottoman authority concerning the immigration in the Bulgarian lands in the 18th–19th century (until 1878) of non-Muslims (Christians and Jews) from the Habsburg (Austrian) Empire, the Russian Empire, the Danubian principalities of Walachia and Moldavia (Romania) and other European countries. The objectives pursued by the Sublime Porte with the reception and accommodation in the Bulgarian lands of European immigrants that are non-Muslims, the devices used by the Ottoman authority for implementing this policy and the achieved results are established.
Ключови думи: historical-demographic development of Bulgarian lands during the Bulgarian Revival (18th–19th centuries); immigration in the Bulgarian lands; migration policy of the Ottoman Empire
*Език на статията: Английски